Shays’ Seat Main Connecticut Battleground
Roll Call, Wednesday, April 02, 2008
BANTAM, Conn. - During the 2006 midterm elections, Connecticut was one of the most fiercely contested states in the battle for the House, with three of its five seats in the Democratic cross hairs. But now - 16 months after Democrats Joe Courtney and Christopher Murphy ousted then-GOP Reps. Rob Simmons and Nancy Johnson and GOP Rep. Christopher Shays held off a stiff challenge for the second consecutive cycle - the Nutmeg State has lost much of its luster as a campaign hot spot for 2008.
The biggest target remains Shays, who faces a new challenger, Jim Himes - an investment banker, leader of an affordable-housing nonprofit and Greenwich Democratic Town Committee chairman. Himes has racked up an impressive fundraising record, even outraising Shays for one quarter last year.
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The one Connecticut contest that does look like a barnburner this cycle is the Shays-Himes race. In 2004 and 2006, Westport First Selectwoman Diane Farrell (D) challenged Shays - one of the GOP's most moderate House Members, and a politician who's generally well-liked in the district - in well-funded marquee contests. But each time she fell short, even during the 2006 Democratic wave.
Democrats privately say that having a new candidate helps them in 2008, and Himes' fundraising totals have been impressive. While the incumbent raised $1,168,000 through December, Himes was not far behind at $951,000 and ended 2007 with slightly more money in the bank than the incumbent.
Democrats here say that Himes is focusing intensively on assembling the kind of get-out-the-vote efforts that could have put Farrell over the top. They also say that Shays' continued support for the Iraq War keeps him out of sync with the district.
"Voters in that district have finally reached a tipping point," argues [Roy] Occhiogrosso, the Democratic consultant.
Democrats say that in this generally Democratic state, the fact that it's a presidential year should produce conditions similar to the 2006 midterm wave. The district includes wealthy areas that have been trending Democratic as well as more urban areas with a strong Democratic lean.
"If you look at the numbers, twice as many Democrats voted in the district as Republicans, and that was before [Arizona Sen. John McCain] was the presumptive Republican presidential nominee. In a blue district, Chris Shays will have a hard time getting re-elected with a strong Democratic candidate and an enthusiastic base," said Carrie James, a spokeswoman for the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee.
Republicans, while girding for a nip-and-tuck race, say they fully expect Shays to survive. After winning another term despite the 2006 GOP wipeout, "Shays will get re-elected" in 2008 as well, said George Gallo, a former GOP state chairman who now serves as chief of staff to the state House Republican leadership.
NRCC spokesman Ken Spain added, "I think both [Farrell and Himes] don't seem to get the fact that Chris Shays transcends partisan lines."
There's also another possibility - that Shays doesn't make it to the finish line. He told national and local media outlets that he would not seek another term if he fails to secure the ranking member spot on the House Oversight and Government Reform Committee. If that happens, and if Shays keeps his word about leaving, then the Democrats would be strongly favored to flip the seat - and the Connecticut House race landscape would become even less of a national crucible than it has already become this year.
(Full article at: http://www.rollcall.com/issues/53_113/politics/22758-1.html)
