Cook Report: Shays at risk
Stamford Times, Wednesday, April 30, 2008
U.S. Rep. Christopher Shays will be facing another difficult reelection campaign this fall, according to a Washington-based political report.
Shays, R-4, tops the list of incumbent Republican congressman most at risk to be unseated in the November elections, according to The Cook Political Report.
"He's the only Republican representative left in all of New England," said Howard L. Reiter, head of the Political Science department at the University of Connecticut. "The last time that happened was in the 1890s when Patrick Joseph Kennedy (grandfather of John F. Kennedy) was the only democrat."
The Cook Political Report, a non-partisan political newsletter, based Shays' vulnerability on factors such as past election results, party registration in the district and current cash on hand totals for Shays and his challenger, Democrat Jim Himes.
Reiter agrees with the assessment that Shays could be in trouble this fall. Over the last 50 years, New England, which had a strong Republican base, has been become Democratic territory.
Reiter said that as the Republican party began to grow stronger in the south, and moved to the right on social issues, Republican appeal waned in the northeast. This shift has put moderate Republicans in bind, Reiter said.
"It puts someone like Shays in an awkward situation. You want to be loyal and cooperate with the party, but folks back home are not that enamored with the national party," Reiter said.
Maura Keaney, Himes' campaign manager, said she believes Shays is vulnerable because families are hurting economically.
"The Bush economy, particularly the tax breaks for the wealthy, have hurt the middle class," Keaney said.
Himes, a businessman and non-profit executive from Greenwich, has raised more than $1 million for his campaign according to the Cook Report. Whether or not he can unseat Shays remains to be seen, Reiter said.
"Traditionally, people with elective experience tend to make stronger candidates," he said. "It doesn't mean you can't win, but by and large having gone through the experience and knowing what it's like to (serve as an elected official) tends to put a candidate in a better position."
Reiter said the issues that are driving the upcoming election are the usual suspects: the war in Iraq, health care, education, the housing market and the economy, which he believes will be the most important issue in congressional races across the board.
Shays support for the Iraq war has cost him some support in the 4th district, Reiter said, noting that Shays had two close reelections in 2004 and 2006.
However, it is still hard to say definitively whether or not this is the year Shays is defeated.
"It's been a balancing act (for Shays) in a swing district," Reiter said. "Sooner or later, I believe a democrat is probably going to win that seat."
