Close race expected in Fourth District
Westport Minuteman, Friday, September 05, 2008
By: Editorial Board
Voters in our area aren't as familiar with Democratic Congressional candidate Jim Himes as well they were with Diane Farrell, Westport's former First Selectwoman who ran against 20-year incumbant Congressman Christopher Shays in 2006 and 2004.
Ironically, though, Himes may have a better chance of actually defeating Shays than Farrell, who ran forceful, intelligent campaigns but who was up against Shays' well-tended reputation as a political moderate who takes middle-of-the-road or liberal stands on issues like the environment, women's rights, and so on.
This year, Himes has the advantage of a strong presidential candidate, Barack Obama, at the top of the Democratic ticket, and a generalized intense dislike among the electorate for the Bush administration and its various failings.
In a recent interview with Minuteman editors and reporters, Himes noted that he opposed America's involvement in the Iraq war, which Shays has strongly supported.
But Himes' main focus was on the economy. He noted that people are concerned and insecure whatever their income level or station in life. Himes, a Greenwich resident, is a former investment banker with Goldman Sachs who now works for a "green" not-for-profit agency that builds affordable houses.
The Himes campaign hopes that Obama's presence at the top of the ticket will add enough excitement to encourage voter turnout, especially in the big cities like Bridgeport and Stamford. A higher turnout in those cities two years ago would probably have led to a Farrell victory.
For his part, Shays' campaign has been running TV commercials that say nice things about Obama, as well as Republican presidential candidate John McCain, whom Shays has endorsed and strongly supports. Talk about playing things down the middle.
Himes and Shays both have well-financed campaigns. According to recent finance disclosure reports, Himes has $1.4 million on hand, compared to $1.7 million for Shays.
Two years ago, Shays benefited from two visits on his behalf by McCain to the Fourth District. That probably won't happen this year, as McCain would rather be campaigning in states where he has a better chance to win. Connecticut is pretty much conceded to the Democrats.
But Shays may still benefit if Himes makes the mistake the Democrats did in 2006, assuming that the Fourth District as a whole is as liberal as Westport, Fairfield and the big cities.
Ever since the reapportionment following the 2000 census, the Fourth District has included more towns in northern Fairfield County that are Republican and rather conservative.
Shays has been in Congress since defeating Democrat Christine Neidermeier in an election to fill the vacancy created by the death of Congressman Stewart McKinney, father of current State Sen. John McKinney. Like Shays, Stewart McKinney was a Republican moderate whose views closely matched the district.
With both Himes and Shays having their own advantages going into the campaign, turnout will be the key. Stay tuned.
